Sunday 9:45–10:25 in Room 2
The Duct Tape of Heroes: Bayes Rule.
Vincent Warmerdam
- Audience level:
- Intermediate
Description
In this talk I will give many examples of when Bayes rule will help you in your day to day work. I'll quickly show many examples of bayesian statistical thinking in action; the pleasure of inference, probabilistic graphs, model selection, feature generation, even operations research! I'll finish with a dataset from Heroes of the Storm and I'll show why Bayesian models can outperform randomforests.
Abstract
My talk is made up of the following examples;
- basic disease example: what is the value of adding an extra test to a patient
- give an example of an inference task that is very hard to do properly without bayesian thinking
- creating simple probibalistic models with pandas and showing how they are robust against missing data. I will also demo pomegranate, a new probabilistic programming tool for python.
- show how you can use bayes rule to pick models
- demo a bayesian probablistic approach to finding overpowered characters in the Heroes of the Storm video game.
