Wednesday 9:00 AM–10:30 AM in Music Box (5411)

An Introduction to Probability and Statistics

Will Kurt

Audience level:
Novice

Description

This tutorial will offer a quick overview of many of the essentials of statistics used to solve real world problems. We'll start by looking at how to build a simple hypothesis test based on a practical e-commerce problem. Then we'll see how we can expand on this simple test using one of the most powerful tools in statistics: the linear model. No previous experience with statistics required!

Abstract

Introduction to Probability and Statistics Speaker: Will Kurt Audience: Anyone interested in learning how to apply statistics to practical problems!

This 90-minute tutorial from the author of “Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way” will provide a quick overview of the practice of using statistics to solve real world problems. Explanation of statistical topics will follow solving a practical example problem. The focus of the tutorial will be on comparing the performance of two products in an ecommerce catalog. You will learn how to use statistics to:

All steps in the tutorial will involve demonstrations with Python code. We’ll be making use of numpy, pandas, matplotlib, jupyter and PyMC3. At the end of this talk you will have walked through the process of reasoning statistically about a real data problem.

1. Foundations of Probability and Statistics (30 minutes)

Focus: measuring the performance of a product in an online catalog

A. Probability the logic of uncertainty (15 minutes)

B. Statistical Inference: probability in reverse! (15 minutes)

2. Parameter Estimation and Hypothesis testing (20 minutes)

Focus: Comparing two products: which is better and by how much?

A. Hypothesis test as parameter estimate

B. Improving our hypothesis tests with prior probabilities

3. Linear models for statistical inference (40 minutes)

Focus: What do we do when our test is influenced by random discounts?

A. Brief intro to PyMC3

B. Rebuilding our problem as a linear model

C. Testing more complex situations

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