Saturday 14:30–15:15 in Auditorium

The Duct Tape of Heroes: Bayesian statistics.

Vincent D. Warmerdam

Audience level:


In this talk I will give many examples of when Bayes rule will help you in your day to day work. I'll quickly show many examples of bayesian statistical thinking in action; the pleasure of inference, probabilistic graphs, model selection, feature generation, even operations research! I'll finish with a dataset from Heroes of the Storm and I'll show why Bayesian models can outperform randomforests.


My talk is made up of the following examples;

  • basic disease example: what is the value of adding an extra test to a patient
  • give an example of an inference task that is very hard to do properly without bayesian thinking
  • creating simple probibalistic models with pandas and showing how they are robust against missing data
  • demo the daft, corner and pomegrenate library
  • show how you can use bayes rule to pick models
  • demo a bayesian probablistic approach to finding overpowered characters in the Heroes of the Storm video game.